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Risk Analysis of Earth-rock Dam Based on Unascertained Analytic Network Process

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Tutor: LiZongKun LiFeng
School: Zhengzhou University
Course: Hydraulic Structure Engineering
Keywords: Risk Analysis,And unascertained network analysis,Unascertained Measure,Network A
CLC: TV641
Type: Master's thesis
Year:  2011
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Abstract:
Earth dam is the dam of one of the most common form of the presence of a variety of dangerous risks , however , due to historical reasons , more than 40% of embankment dams . Strengthen the embankment dam risk analysis , not only guide the dam reinforcement , but also provide the basis for dam risk management is an important guarantee of the people's lives and property safety , and economic development . Rely on expert judgment unascertained information for risk analysis , this paper will not ascertain the measure comprehensive evaluation model combined with network analysis method , and proposed the Unascertained network analysis . Will build the embankment dam risk analysis verified the feasibility of the application of the method in embankment dams risk analysis the unascertained network analysis model is applied to practical engineering . The concrete results are as follows : 1 , the use of unascertained mathematics knowledge to the synthesis problem of uncertainty conclusion of the expert system into the unascertained the rationals or blind number of arithmetic problems , the consolidated group of experts on the evaluation of qualitative indicators . 2, the use of network analysis to calculate risk indicators right to take full account of the correlation between the earth dam risk indicators . 3 , will not ascertain the measure comprehensive evaluation model combined with network analysis methods , the proposed the Unascertained network analysis . Unascertained measure function obtained quantitative and qualitative indicators to meet the \Finally embankment dam engineering credible recognition criteria for risk evaluation . 4 , the application is not known network analysis after Sihe dam risk analysis , the results of the actual
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