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Reliability Calculation and Risk Assessment for Salt-rock Gas Storage Caverns during Operation Time

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Tutor: JiaChao
School: Shandong University
Course: Hydraulic Structure Engineering
Keywords: Salt rock gas storage,Creep,Stochastic mechanics,Time dependent reliability,Risk
CLC: TE122.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year:  2011
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Energy reserves is a major national strategic needs, China has begun large-scale construction of salt rock energy underground storage group, the reliability of the reservoir relationship between energy reserves project the success of the implementation. In the mechanical properties of rock salt creep and deformation characteristics predecessors has done a lot of research work, but at home and abroad based on the theory of stochastic mechanics of rock salt repository variable reliability calculation and risk analysis still rare. Therefore, the reservoir to carry out reliability risk of great practical significance. To of salt Jiangsujintan rocks underground gas storage project, for example, to carry out the gas storage reliability calculation and risk assessment in the design of the operation period, the main contents are as follows: The relevant physico-mechanical properties of rock salt creep deformation mechanism to carry out the salt rock gas storage 3D geomechanical model test and gas storage mechanical properties of strength numerical finite element simulation; explore the theoretical basis for gas storage random reliability calculation and analysis to identify the impact of rock salt underground storage gas storage reliability of the main risk factors. Meanwhile, rock salt is a typical rheological material has an important influence stability, creep characteristics of the reservoir built therein reservoir reliability significantly time-varying characteristics. Therefore, based on random reliability theory and the theory of Creep, establish the reliability calculation function creep volume shrinkage of the reservoir rate risk control indicators, response surface method combined with Monte-Carlo sampling methods, research reserve the library operators of time-varying by the degree of variation and risk probability evolution and sensitivity analysis of the key risk factors on the risk of failure of underground gas storage. Finally, based on the concept of functional design, build gas storage operators of risk classification mechanism and the corresponding evaluation index system, and the operators of gas storage risk assessment and prediction. Through analysis, we draw the gas storage (group) a reliable indicator of variation over time and risk level; fitted to meet the engineering reliability requirements of the volume convergence rate limit gas pressure relationship, and The main random factors the results of the control and management of gas storage risk measures, the conclusion for rock salt the safe operation of underground gas storage and post-maintenance theory and decision-making based on the sensitivity of the probability of the risk of gas storage; .
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