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Study on the Chinese Oil Market and the Strategic Reserve

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Tutor: ZhangShaoZuo
School: Chengdu University of Technology
Course: Mineral prospecting and exploration
Keywords: Oil and gas market,Supply and demand balance,Strategic reserve base of oil and g
CLC: F426
Type: PhD thesis
Year:  2012
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With the development of society and economy, the demand of energy hasincreased rapidly. Especially in the modern industrial age, how to guarantee thesupply of oil&gas resources is becoming a primary problem to each country. In orderto get sufficient oil&gas resources, the frequency of frictions and wars betweencountries has increased. So, scrambling for resources has become the source ofinstability in the world. Therefore China must pay attention to oil and gas marketchanges and supply security, especially in the period of rapid development.By analyzing the situations of China¡¯s oil&gas reserves, production andconsumption in nearly30years, the balance of oil¡¯s consumption and production hasbroken since1990s, while gas¡¯s consumption and production can still keep balance.However, the sign of imbalance for gas is emerge. The imbalance of oil consumptionand production is expressed as follows: the oil reserves growth rate is lower thandemand growth rate; the production growth rate is lower than consumption growthrate. And reach the balance by import is a long run problem. This paper use gray GM(1,1) model and regression model to predict the volume of China¡¯s oil reserves, oilproduction, oil consumption and oil import in the next five years. The results showthat for an optimistic situation, in2015and2020, China¡¯s oil reserves can reach13000and21200millions tons in2015and2020respectively; and for a pessimistic situation,in2014China¡¯s oil reserves will reach a peak of1796million tons and later will fall.Besides, according to the prediction, in2015and2020, the volumes of China¡¯s oilproduction is220and243million tons, and the volume of oil consumption is560and770millions tons, and the volumes of import is340~380and500~520million tons.Form previous analysis, China¡¯s oil import volumes is huge, so the security of oilimport must be put on the primary place. This thesis analyze the security situation ofoil import in the past ten years form the aspects of the numbers of suppliers, proportion of import and price volatility. We proposed that the question of energysecurity should be studied from the angle of China¡¯s import situation and the influenceby suppliers.By Entropy Weight method, the security level of the11major suppliers is assessed.Additionally, the nearly10years¡¯ data about China¡¯s oil import is deeply analyzed.The results show that though the number of suppliers is increased, the degree ofconcentration is still high. Besides, China¡¯s oil import dependence will exceed thealert level till2015even2020. At the same time, the economic risk caused by oil pricevolatility can not be ignored. The data of suppliers¡¯ security level show that if Chinawants to upward the level of oil import security, on one hand, China must try its bestto find the suppliers which both reserve and production volume is large, additionallythese countries¡¯ political and surrounding environment must stable. One the otherhand, China must pay attention to the ratio of import volume to their productionvolume, and by conservative estimation, the optimal ration should lower than20%.China depends on the imported oil so much that the work for China¡¯s tactic oil andgas reserve cannot be neglected. According to the purposes of the China¡¯s tactic oil andgas reserve, the construction of tactic gas and oil reserve system should take reserveprincipal part, reserve time, reserve forms, reserve methods, and reserve ways etc. intoaccount. Meanwhile, from the point of wars in the process of history and the socialinstability, they last for different periods. Thus, tactic gas and oil reserve may last longin the course of dealing with the crisis, which needs a more integrated and systematictactic gas and oil reserve system. Dealing with the long-term oil crisis, the reserve costsmust be taken into consideration, which can be solved by forming succeeding reservesystem. Succeeding reserve system refers to the succeeding for the reserve of oil andother petroleum products by increasing the reserve forms of the resources. That is to saythe exploration reserve base in the oil-field must be set up to form a succeeding andintegrated system of the reserve base. The location of the exploration reserve baseshould be complementary with the advantages and conditions of China¡¯s present gasand oil reserve base location. The petroleum geology conditions, oily conditions andgeographic location environment must be considered. The construction of China¡¯stactic gas and oil exploration reserve base should correspondence to the futureeconomic and social development and the national defense and security.It is indispensable to construct the Northern Tibet gas and oil exploration reservebase, whether from the point of the selection conditions of the exploration reserve base,or from the needs of the social economy in Tibet, or from China¡¯s development in the world market. Northern Tibet gas and oil exploration reserve base consists ofQiangtang basin, Polunla-nima basin and Kekexili basin, which are rich in gas and oil.According to the present conditions, it is necessary to take two steps to finish theconstruction of Northern Tibet gas and oil exploration reserve base of Chinese gas andoil tactic. Firstly, the research starts with the Polunla-nima basin whose conditionsfrom the oil geological exploration conditions and the natural environment to the statesof the social economy development, and to the traffic conditions, are all the best in therange of the base. Meanwhile, based on the present traffic instruments, reservetransportation road network of the oil and gas reserve base and part supply networks ofrenewable energy sources which are provided for the supply base are all set up. Then,based on the previous experience, the research, taking Lunpo-nima basin as the startpoint, extends the construction range west forwards to the favorable block of Qiangtangbasin, until to the richest parts of oil and gas in Kekexili basin, in order to construct sucha base as integrates reserve transportation road networks and part supply networks ofrenewable energy sources. That is Northern Tibet gas and oil exploration reserve tacticbase.
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